导弹电子设备故障的组合预测方法研究

Research on a Fault Prediction Method of the Electronic Equipment of A Type of Missle Based on the Combined Prediction Model

摘要:

针对传统GM(1,1)的对纯指数型序列预测的局限性,引出了改进的离散灰色DGM(1,1)模型。应用DGM(1,1)模型与时间序列AR模型的组合模型对导弹电子设备进行故障预测,并通过实例对预测精度进行了检验。

Abstract:

As to the prediction constriction of traditional GM(1,1) model to pure exponent series, the developed concrete gray GM(1,1) model was introduced. DGM(1,1) model combing with time series AR model was used in the fault prediction to the electronic equipment of a type of missile. In the end, an example of validation analysis to the prediction precision of combined prediction model was given.