基于灰色理论的导弹装备故障间隔时间预测

TBF Prediction of Missile Equipment with Gray Theory

摘要:

导弹装备的故障间隔时间是其可靠性参数的重要指标,通过分析导弹装备的特点,建立了故障间隔时间预测模型。考虑到导弹装备的故障数据量有限,用一般方法准确地预测很困难,因此提出用灰色预测模型进行预测的方法,建立了GM(1, 1)预测模型并用数据进行验证。验证结果表明该方法具有很好的预测精度,可用于装备故障间隔时间的预测和估算。

Abstract:

The time between failure of missile equipment is the important reliability parameter. Based on the grey theory, a TBF predictive model was built by the way of analyzing the guided missile equipment's failure characters. Thinking of the failure data of guided missile equipment capacity is limited, it's difficult to predict TBF accurately. A GM(1,1) model was built to predict and estimate the missile equipment's TBF. Theory calculation and the Matlab simulation results all indicate that this method has a good predictive precision.