基于蒙特卡洛法的反舰导弹末端机动突防效果研究

Research on Penetration Effect of Terminal Maneuver for Anti-Ship Missile Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要:

为了比较反舰导弹在不同的末端机动方式下,当有舰空导弹拦截时哪种突防效果更好,从工程应用的角度出发,考虑反舰导弹受多种因素(包括干扰、建模误差、海情、不确定性等)的影响,并同时考虑舰空导弹的前置角约束和死区约束,建立了反舰导弹与舰空导弹的对抗模型。其中,反舰导弹采用的是基于过载控制方法设计的全弹道仿真模型,舰空导弹则采用三阶简化模型。根据舰空导弹初始拦截位置的不同,设定不同的初始仿真条件,在计算机上进行多次打靶,应用蒙特卡洛法分别计算反舰导弹在不同机动方式下的突防概率。仿真结果表明,在有舰空导弹拦截的情况下,反舰导弹进行螺旋机动时,其突防效果最好,摆式机动次之,然后是纵向蛇行机动,最后是航向蛇行机动,而突防效果最差的则是反舰导弹不进行末端机动。

Abstract:

In order to compare the penetration effect of different terminal maneuver forms for anti-ship missile, when it is intercepted by the ship-to-air missile, the intercepting mathematical model was presented in the point of view of engineering application. With the restriction factors of disturb, modeling error, ocean wave, uncertainties and other actual restrictions, an anti-ship missile was simulated in 6-DOF based on the overload control system. And the ship-to-air missile was simulated in three order characteristics considering the constraints of heading angle and dead-area. According to the different initial positions of ship-to-air missile, the different initial simulation conditions were accordingly defined. By the computer simulation, the penetration probability of different terminal maneuver forms for anti-ship missile was computed base on the Monte Carlo method. Simulation results show that, under the condition of enemy interception missile, the penetration effect of spiral maneuver for anti-ship missile is the best, the cycloid maneuver is the second, the longitudinal snake maneuver is the third, the yaw snake maneuver is the forth, and the penetration effect of without maneuver is the last.