改进灰色预测模型在对地攻击弹药需求预测中的应用

Applications of Improved Grey Forecasting Model for Ammunition Requirement of Air-To-Ground Attack

摘要:

针对战时航空兵编队对地攻击的弹药需求问题,研究了灰色预测模型在弹药需求预测中的应用问题。首先,分析了影响弹药需求预测的主要因素；其次,分析了基本GM(1,1)模型存在的问题,提出了一种新的改进参数和时间响应序列的GM(1,1)模型；最后,分别用基本GM(1,1)模型和改进的GM(1,1)模型对一组弹药需求数列进行比较分析。结果表明,相对于基本GM(1,1)模型而言,改进的GM(1,1)模型的相对误差较小。

Abstract:

Aiming at the aviation formation’s ammunition requirement of air-to-ground attack, application of the grey forecasting model in ammunition requirement forecast was studied. Firstly, the main factors which influenced ammunition requirement forecast were analyzed. Secondly, with the deficiencies of the basic GM(1,1), a new GM(1,1) model of the improved parameters and time response series was formed. Lastly, a set of ammunition requirement data was compared by the basic and the improved GM(1,1). The result showed that the relative error of the improved GM(1,1) was least for the other method.