基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析

Reliability and Availability Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Theory

摘要:

综合考虑了装备、保障系统、管理和人员、保障方案等要素,提出了一种基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可 靠性和可用性分析方法,将先验信息和样本数据有效融合,采用模糊随机变量来处理数据的不确定。通过算例分 析,验证了模型的有效性。结论表明,该方法所得的评估结果符合装备的实际情况。

Abstract:

Considering all equipments, support system, management and personnel, and plan, a new modeling method for determining the reliability and availability of a missile weapon system was proposed based on fuzzy Bayesian theory. The model made full use of prior information and statistics, and adopted fuzzy random vari. ables to handle uncertainty of data. The suggested modeling method was illustrated on an example. The results showed that the methods based on fuzzy Bayesian theory were applicative to missile weapon system.