基于组合预测模型的某型导弹贮存寿命评估方法

Evaluation Method of Certain Missile Storage Life Based on Combination Forecasting Model

摘要:

科学确定导弹的贮存寿命对提高部队装备保障能力和战斗力具有重要的现实意义。针对导弹贮存数据具有“少数据”和随机波动性较大特点,建立了灰色[GM(1,1)]评估模型和马尔可夫模型的组合预测模型,并应用此组合预测模型解决了某型导弹贮存寿命评估的问题。结果表明,该方法对现有数据拟合程度较好,预测精度较高,克服单一预测方法的不足,有效性强,使用价值大。

Abstract:

It is very important to scientifically determine the storage life of a missile for developing support ability and combat power of army. Then, the combination forecasting modeling method was focused on describeing with less data modeling features gray GM(1,1) forecasting model and suitable for large random fluctuations Markov model. Finally, this model was used to solve the problem of certain missile storage life evaluation. Through the analytic results, the method was better than the single forecasting method, and was regarded of feasibility and high practice value.