某型装备轴承件无失效时的可靠性参数估计

Estimation of Reliability Parameters on a Certain Equipment Bearing Based on Zero Failure

摘要:

针对寿命服从威布尔分布的某型装备轴承件在无失效数据时的可靠性参数估计问题,首先,以失效概率为待估参数,取其先验分布为 Beta分布,在 2个超参数的先验密度函数为 2种不同情形下,建立了失效概率的 2种 EBayes估计模型,分析了稳健性、渐近性和单调性；然后,对威布尔分布参数进行了加权最小二乘估计,进而建立了可靠度的 2种 E-Bayes估计模型,分析了稳健性和单调性；最后,结合实例数据进行了可靠性参数估计与分析,指出第 2种估计模型更加合理有效。

Abstract:

Aiming at the problem of estimating the reliability parameters of a certain type of equipment bearing based on ze?ro failure, whose life is subject to the Weibull distribution, the probability of failure was chosen as the parameter to be esti?mated in this paper. While its prior distribution was Beta distribution and the prior density functions of the two hyper pa?rameters were different, two types of E-Bayes estimation models for the failure probability were built. And the robustness,asymptotic property and monotonicity were analyzed. Then the distribution parameters of Weibull distribution were estimat?ed with weighted least square method, and two types of E-Bayes estimation models for reliability were built. On the otherhand, accordingly, the robustness and monotonicity were analyzed. Furthermore, the reliability parameters were estimatedand analyzed according to a practical example, and it proved the second estimation model was more reasonable and effi?cient.