文章摘要
基于GARCH族优选模型的船舶热工类仪表器材消耗预测研究
Warship Thermal Engineering Spare Parts Consumption Forecasting Studies Based on GARCH Family Preferred Model
投稿时间:2020-06-22  修订日期:2020-07-10
DOI:
中文关键词: GARCH族模型  热工仪表  消耗预测
英文关键词: GARCH family preferred model  thermal engineering spare parts  consumption prediction
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
吴雯雯 海军航空大学 chg1559@126.com 
摘要点击次数: 97
全文下载次数: 0
中文摘要:
      器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境以及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,船舶热工类仪表器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC准则,对GARCH族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。
英文摘要:
      The forecast of the consumption of spare parts is the premise and basis for doing a good job in technical support. Influenced by factors such as equipment life cycle, task type, marine environment and skill level of personnel using equipment, the consumption sequence of Warship Thermal Engineering Spare Parts will fluctuate over time, and the cluster effect and peak thick tail characteristics are obvious. Using the AIC criterion, the GARCH family models are compared and preferred, and a more suitable prediction model is sought to achieve accurate prediction of consumption.
View Fulltext   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭